How F.A.R. Should We Go?

The Area, Height and Placement (AHP) revisions to Chapters 55 (Zoning) and 59 (Off-Street Parking) of the Ann Arbor city code have been under discussion for over a year.  They were apparently staff-generated (not as result of any public outcry for a change to our zoning ordinances).  Through this last summer, a number of meetings were held around the city where staff attempted to explain what the changes were expected to bring about.   The Ann Arbor Chronicle summarized the intent and provisions in an article that also drew a long comment thread.  As it notes, the revisions are intended to make the commercial and multifamily sections of Ann Arbor more amenable to Transit-Oriented Development (TOD).  The Ann Arbor Transportation Plan Update explains this concept in detail and it can be summarized neatly in one word: density.  The AATPU projects an increase in Ann Arbor’s population by 2030 of up to 20% (to a total of 124,085) and explicitly calls for high-density zoning to accommodate this growth.  (The plan also calls for some very adventurous transportation additions, some of which we are already hearing about now.)

One of the ways density is achieved is by a striking increase of F.A.R. (Floor Area Ratio) in some zoning districts. F.A.R. is a ratio of how much of the buildable area of a parcel may be occupied with building.  So 100% F.A.R. would mean that a building of one story could occupy the full area within the setbacks.  Or a building of 2 stories may occupy 50% of the lot.  Or a building of 4 stories may occupy 25% of the area, and so forth.  Theoretically, one could legally build a “needle tower” up to the clouds if there is no height limitation in addition to the F.A.R. assigned.  The AHP changes as presented to the public had no height limitations in certain commercial areas (C3, Office [O], Office/Research/Limited Industry [ORL], and Research [R]).  F.A.R. was dramatically increased. For example, C1 (local business) was increased from 40% F.A.R. to 200%.   That would easily lead to 4-story buildings if only half of the lot was taken up with parking lot and lawn.  But C1 does have a height limit of 35′ (increased from 25′) or 50′ for large lots, so apparently had a height limit of approximately 5-6 stories.  Heights for some multifamily districts were increased from 40′ or 60′ to 120′.

Since the areas subject to these changes (see map)  are often near residential areas, one concern expressed at public meetings was the absence of a height limitation, and another one was the possible impact on adjacent areas.  The staff seem to be trying to address those concerns.  Indeed, the staff has kept prodigious records of public comment, including the comment thread on the Chronicle. The effort to obtain real public input appears to be sincere.  At the August meeting of the AHP Advisory Committee (appointed by council to work with staff on the public rollout), it was decided to make an all-out effort to give the populace a true opportunity for serious interaction on the proposal.  Tuesday night is devoted to small-group sessions, with a facilitator at each table.  October 7 will be a chance for each speaker to address the entire audience.  Anyone with a serious interest in the subject can attend both meetings; it should result in a good understanding of the changes at a minimum.

Of course, the larger question is why this? why now?  It appears that we are ramping up to a vision of a much bigger city where redevelopment of commercial and multifamily areas at the edges of the city is eagerly sought.  The market and the economy are going to have to change quite a bit for that to happen.  I propose a test site: let’s redevelop the Georgetown Mall. The recent news about the mall means that we are going to have a concrete and asphalt hole in the fabric of Ann Arbor, right on a major thoroughfare.  It would make an excellent spot for a test of the Utopian vision (borrowed from Seattle in most cases) of a dense mixed-use development with charming shops and coffeehouses below, urban residences above, parking sequestered out of site, tree-lined sidewalks, and easy access to transit with a diminished setback to the street.  Maybe we could even get Kroger to come back.

UPDATE: The public meetings are over.  Now we’ll see what the staff do with all the comments.  The project webpage includes videos and maps that are detailed ward-by-ward.  If any proposed changes are adjacent to your own property, now is the time to look it over.

Parking, Money and the Conference Center

The city took its first step in the RFP process for a development over the Library Lot parking structure today with the pre-proposal meeting.  (Highlights of the RFP and a link to the full document are here.) The rest of the schedule for the RFP has slipped somewhat; though proposals are still due on November 13 and interviews for proposers are still on December 7, the city now expects evaluation to be complete on January 25, 2010, with a February 15 recommendation to the council and a March 1 council award to the winning proposal.  The two committees that will review the proposals, a technical committee and an “oversight committee,” have not yet been appointed.

The council chambers had about 50 people, including journalists and “the public” as well as presumed developers and their staffs.  Jayne Miller provided a set of written answers to questions already received.  I’ve noticed in the past that developers in these meetings are very close-mouthed and don’t actually ask very many questions, and the same was true here.  A couple of questions came from Alan Haber, who has long pleaded for a Community Commons.  He responded with such a proposal to the original RFP for housing on the old Y lot. Unfortunately, part of Haber’s vision is often that the community or the city will provide the funds necessary for a commons, which was presumably behind his question about the weighting of criteria on the RFP.  (Administrator Roger Fraser replied that financial return to the city was worth 10% of the score.)

Other questions were about the importance of A2D2 zoning and the design guidelines, both of which are not yet final.  Miller responded that the A2D2 zoning would be (hopefully) passed by council on October 19, and the staff was also hoping to put the design guidelines on the agenda by then.  Fraser made a point of saying that these are just guidelines (i.e. not fixed in stone) — “in order to achieve things desirable for our community,”  he implied that there might be some flexibility and said that proposers could ask for interpretations.  Alice Ralph, who was on the committee that produced the guidelines, sprang to the point to ask whether these interpretations would be available to the public as well.  Fraser said yes, any general interpretations, but nothing that could reveal details of a specific proposal.

Money on the table

A revelation with potential cost implications was that the DDA was considering installing up to 190 geothermal wells and needed feedback early.  (Susan Pollay, its executive director, explained that the DDA would be excavating in three phases and all design aspects would be fixed in place by early spring.)  The announcement left people apparently a bit stunned; someone finally said, of course most developers would like to have geothermal capability (it would add significant value), but was that paid for by the DDA?  Pollay said that it could be dealt with as part of the overall proposal; but Fraser jumped in to say that  “we are willing to make that investment upfront” and then enlarged on the fact that the city and DDA are already improving the utilities, adding electric capacity and water in order to serve that part of 5th Avenue “and points south”.  (Note that “south” is the Germantown neighborhood that is trying to avoid extensive development.)  In addition, in answer to questions, Pollay said that the DDA would accommodate all stormwater retention on site plus maybe some more.  (This would ordinarily be a cost of the above-ground development.)  Fraser further enlarged in response to another question about the old Y lot, to say that the lot is a “blank slate—one that is available to write on” and that one motivation for developing the Library Lot is to support development on the Y lot.  He said that the economy is such that “not a lot of energy” is around both sites but that it was hoped that what happens on the Library Lot will serve as a stimulus to develop the Y lot.

Parking and its uses

One of the continuing mysteries about the Fifth Avenue underground parking structure is that the parking spaces being created are being cited as solving many different problems, some of which are mutually exclusive.  In a recent story in the Ann Arbor Chronicle, the mayor was quoted thus:  “They’ll be losing at least 700 parking spaces in the coming years, he said, and the new underground parking structure on Fifth Avenue—a project which will be breaking ground next week— is only replacing the parking they’re losing.”  But then he went on to reference Google and the benefit of (business) parking downtown.  Comment threads on the Chronicle and elsewhere indicate that many hope these parking places will serve casual visitors to the downtown, shoppers and the like.  In a written answer to one of the questions about the RFP, the city implied that up to 460 spaces might be reserved for use of the RFP project.  Of 660 spaces below ground, the DDA had set forth the intention that 200 would be reserved for users of the library.  “This can be done with signage that indicates where hourly parking and permit parking should take place.”

So whatever project does get the city’s nod—whether it is a conference center or not—looks to have utilities and parking in place.  We’ll see whether the “financial benefit to the city” will match the cost of paying for all this development assistance.

UPDATE: AnnArbor.com has published a list of the attendees. Among them are Valiant Partners, who submitted the “secret plan”.

SECOND UPDATE: The text and one attachment of the “clarifying questions” are attached.

THIRD UPDATE: AnnArbor.com interviewed Jayne Miller at the Library Lot.  Caution: some of her statements are incorrect or not current (for example, she speaks as though the Library expansion is still on track, but it was postponed indefinitely nearly a year ago).

FOURTH UPDATE: The city has released a transcript of Q&A at the pre-proposal meeting, as well as a list of attendees with contact information.

FIFTH UPDATE: The city has now established a web page for the RFP.

SIXTH UPDATE: A figure has been stated as the cost for the parking structure, but there is controversy over fees the city is charging the DDA.

SEVENTH UPDATE: The November 13 deadline has passed with six proposals being submitted.  AnnArbor.com reports that they have a FOIA pending review by the city to see the proposals.  It seems clear from here that the city is out of line trying to keep the substance of these proposals secret during review.

EIGHTH UPDATE: The AATA plans to rebuild its Blake Transit Center, according to AnnArbor.com. This could have an impact on the use of the Y lot.

Crime, Fear and the Neighborhood (II)

The “Old Northwest Side” neighborhood meeting that the city hosted on September 22 was really two meetings, hinged on the question of neighborhood concerns about crime.  Each in its own way raised questions about how we perceive vulnerability to crime in our own homes.

For the first hour,  in response to the recent epidemic of break-ins, Police Chief Barnett Jones held forth on crime statistics and advice on how to be safe in one’s home.

Chief Jones provided these figures for crime in Ann Arbor:

• Jan-June 2008: 1516 major crimes; 1055 breaking and entering
• Jan-June 2009: 1422 major crimes; 1012 breaking and entering

His conclusions: “Crime has gone down in our community; we have a very safe community.”  As can be seen, these would indicate that the famous “uptick” in crime did not occur in the first half of the year.  It is somewhat difficult to reconcile with FBI crime statistics for 2007-2008, showing an increase in property crime from 2,777 in 2007 to 3121 in 2008.  Part of the answer is that different time frames are involved, and the data are not sufficiently granular to indicate what part of “property crime” is in “major crime” or is “breaking and entering”, etc.  Also, the UM apparently submits its own crime statistics to the FBI and those are presumably included in the FBI data (which were supplied to AnnArbor.com by the county sheriff).

Separately, the chief examined the budgetary allotment for “public safety”, which includes police, fire, and the courts:

• 1996: 39% of the city budget to police, fire and courts
• 2008: 54% of the city budget to police, fire and courts.

Note that no fine details were included.  For example, are any amounts related to early retirements charged off against those percentages?  And are expenses relating to the relocation of the 15th District court included?  Certainly the numbers do not give me reassurance that “feet on the street” were getting a high monetary support.  But Jones stressed to the audience that “we’re not overworked”.

But regardless of statistics and dollars, one thing we know is that our Sunset/Brooks area (which includes roughly the area bounded by Spring, Newport, Sunset, and Miller) is not as safe as it used to be.  There was 1 report of a break-in in May, 2 in June, 1 in July – and then 11 in August.  So far in September, 4 have been reported.  Jones said that they seem to have stopped, presumably because of all the attention, and that he personally believes that it is someone living in the neighborhood.  (This would seem to be supported by the fact that the individual carries a backpack, takes only easily portable objects like laptops, and walks up to successive doors.)

Then, for the second hour, a group of neighbors from a slightly different area expressed fears and asked questions relating to the density of supportive and affordable housing in their area, and its possible effect on safety.  The immediate impetus was apparently the Near North project, that was approved by Council on Monday.  Originally this group of neighbors had been hoping for the meeting before that approval.  But their concern is that they felt their neighborhood had too high a density of affordable, supportive, and low-income housing, more than most areas of the city are being asked to bear, and that it made them less safe in their neighborhood.

Indeed, as was conceded by representatives of several supportive housing nonprofits (Michael Appel of Avalon Housing served as the chief spokesperson), the area does have a very high density of various kinds of low-income housing (see map).  As explained, the reason that it is there instead of say, Burns Park, is that property values are simply more affordable.  Also, advocates for the homeless and near-homeless have always argued that these groups need to be near downtown so that they can have ready access to services.

It was clarified that one source of concern, Miller Manor, is a federally-funded facility managed by the Ann Arbor Housing Commission (i.e., it is public housing).  There have been reports of trouble there in the past, but the new manager, Marge Novak explained that it is well staffed, is not “supportive” housing, and that what few problems exist are usually among residents, not with the rest of the community.

Avalon has until this Near North project focused exclusively on supportive housing, with the possible exception of the units that the Washtenaw Affordable Housing Corporation (WAHC) formerly owned.  Avalon took over management of those properties in January 2009.  Supportive housing, as Appel explained, is aimed at very low income people (about $8-15 thousand annual income).  Much of it is also for people who have various disabilities, including mental illness, substance abuse, developmental and physical disabilities.  Many of them are subsisting on SSI (Supplemental Security Income).  They do pay rent to Avalon and they have caseworkers from human service agencies who work with them.  Avalon has always made a point of supervising their tenants closely and evicts troublemakers (Appel estimated that about 5% a year are evicted for behavioral problems).  Other residences in the area are leased by Avalon to Dawn Farm, which runs a number of dry rehabilitation facilities.  The point was made strongly that tenants of these facilities are unlikely to cause trouble, because they are so closely counseled and supervised.

All of this did not entirely satisfy the complaining neighbors, who stated that they loved the diversity of the neighborhood but were concerned that with such a high density of people with acknowledged “issues” might endanger their security in their home turf. But at least they left with more information.

So are there really any safety and security problems for our neighborhood?  The recent rash of break-ins does, actually, look anomalous and maybe the work of only one person, who we hope will be caught now that everyone is so alert.  Despite a recent incident at an Avalon house (a tenant who showed bad judgment about who he took home), they have not and don’t look likely to be a source of crime against our other residents.  The police response has been strong and confident.

But what we have lost is the sense of security that we once enjoyed. The chief’s Crime Prevention talk wasn’t exactly reassuring.  He noted that we should no longer regard ourselves as exempt from what is happening in Michigan.  We are a community of haves, he said, surrounded by have-nots.  Desperate times are making people take desperate measures.  Other communities like Canton and Birmingham are experiencing an increase in crime and we should also be prepared.  Beyond the obvious advice about locking doors and windows, using light timers and letting neighbors know when you will be away, he offered rather frightening suggestions like locking the back door when you are in the back yard, backing into the garage so a perp can’t sneak in past you, and taking out shrubs and vegetation where robbers might lurk.  The picture of Fortress Northwest is not at all appealing.  Chief Jones is also a big proponent of burglar alarms but says that dogs are not an effective deterrent.  So the overall message is: we are safe (good police protection); but be scared, very scared.  And definitely call 911 any time you see anything that “makes the hair stand up on the back of your neck”.

UPDATE: Both this meeting and a second one held on October 27, 2009 are available for viewing here.

Crime, Fear and the Neighborhood

The home invasions on the West Side have gotten our attention.  As we reported previously, a series of these in the Brooks-Sunset-Summit-Spring area apparently began as early as May 2009 but received little public attention.  They also conflicted with the city’s soothing message that residents shouldn’t be concerned about crime in the face of police cuts.  But after AnnArbor.com quoted A2Politico about contradictions between this message and FBI statistics, and then reported on FBI and sheriff’s crime statistics showing increases in crime between 2007 and 2008, the subject got to be very current, and a second community meeting was scheduled for this coming Saturday at Miller Manor.  It was rumored that both the mayor and the police chief would be there.  Meanwhile, a neighborhood email listserv was set up so that we could exchange observations and warnings about suspicious behavior.

But things got confused.  First, the police notice about the second meeting was sent out only to block captains (from the neighborhood watch system, which does not have consistent coverage).  Fortunately, several people forwarded that to the listserv and to other neighborhood group email lists.  As clamor grew and it became evident that Miller Manor (which has no onsite parking) would not be adequate for another large meeting (the first one, held on September 10 with relatively little notice, had more than 100 people), the meeting was rescheduled to the Ann Arbor Community Center on North Main.  But what’s this?  Suddenly it was about the Summit-Spring area and supportive housing concerns.

First Ward Councilmember Sabra Briere, who attended the September 10 meeting and has been communicating with the neighborhood listserv about meeting changes, had an explanation.  It seems the Summit-Spring area (adjacent to Sunset-Brooks) had been asking for a community meeting. From CM Briere’s email:

The meeting that the Summit / Spring neighborhood wanted last August, to address their concerns about affordable / supportive housing and any relationship this might have to any crime in their neighborhood, was initially planned as a small meeting at Miller Manor.  This is clear, because Miller Manor doesn’t have a large meeting room.  The participants invited from an official side — other than the Police Department — included representatives from supportive housing providers, the homeless shelter, and service providers for those who live in either supportive housing or the shelter.

“Supportive housing” is a term of art meaning case-work and various services including mental health and substance abuse assistance are offered to tenants of (usually) group or multifamily housing. (Avalon Housing is a major provider.) By its nature it is expected that the tenants will be very low income and under various stresses.  Evidently the Summit-Spring neighbors had some concerns about the high incidence of such housing (including the homeless shelter) in and near their neighborhood.  Then the home invasion business brought in a whole new set of anxious neighbors with a slightly different concern.

But wait!  The meeting, finally moved to a new location and with the message beginning to filter through, had a flaw: it was scheduled for a major Jewish holiday, Rosh Hashanah.  This was a direct affront and practical difficulty for many neighbors and also for some of the service providers who were supposed to be part of the presentation.  So with lots more legwork from CM Briere, the announcement finally came through today that the meeting is rescheduled.  And it’ll be on CTN!

So this shows what fear will do.  I’ve corresponded with lots of neighbors I never met.  Suddenly we are working cooperatively instead of just nodding politely on walking past.  But it has cast a shadow over our little island.  I’ve been locking my door just to go next door for a couple of minutes.  I’ve wondered whether I’ll be okay to take a shower during the daytime or to go to the garden in back.  (Our home invader rings the doorbell and then tries to get in if no one seems to be home.)  I suspect that our little piece of Ann Arbor will not be the same for quite a while.

Additional note: the Ann Arbor Police have tried creatively to come up with a name to describe our rather amorphous neighborhood.  “Sunset-Brooks” and “Spring-Summit” are only a few streets, after all.  Nothing as snazzy as “the Old West Side”, but “West Side” is not very descriptive.  The meeting as now announced is for “The Old Northwest Side Community Discussion.”

UPDATE:  The rising crime rate story has evidently gotten under the skin of the city authorities and their supporters.  A defense is being seen on blogs denying that there is a problem.  It is interesting in that context to read the opinion piece published September 18 by a retired police officer, in which he says we have a “perfect storm” on crime.

SECOND UPDATE: This story is continued in a second post.

Both the first and second neighborhood meetings held by the city with the police chief speaking were recorded and are available from the city website here.

Keeping Up With the Buzz

Keeping up with Ann Arbor news is more difficult now than it used to be.  As we noted in an earlier post, there are a variety of more or less conventional outlets that are mostly online (and mostly in our blogroll).  The printed word is now barely available on a daily basis.  But part of the trend toward hyperlocal reporting is that numerous other online sources of news, including blogs (like this one) run by individuals, are emerging.  This has been noticed by institutions run for academic and professional journalists like the Knight Foundation, which has established the Knight Citizen News Network.  The site offers a number of resources to guide “both ordinary citizens and traditional journalists in launching and responsibly operating community news and information sites.”  The Knight Foundation evidently has a strong interest in citizen journalism; the oncoming Grand Rapids news source, The Rapidian, is funded by a grant from them.

One of the challenges in getting a real sense of community news online is simply the task of visiting a number of sites every day.  This has been addressed in part by aggregators like Outside.In.  AnnArbor.com, which Outside.In still quaintly calls “the Ann Arbor News”, is also acting as something of an aggregator, pulling up links from other online sources such as the Ann Arbor Chronicle and the Ann Arbor Observer (and this blog), usually with some supporting text wrapped around the link. In addition, they have enlisted an army of bloggers (also known as citizen journalists).  Fwix, which claims to be keeping up with news “in real time” has included Ann Arbor in its Detroit-area scans; they are using blog sources as well.

But to keep up with “the buzz”, what’s going on in our little rain puddle, it is also helpful to check in on local blogs. Of course, most bl0gs are not all news all the time.  Many of them rightfully reflect the owner’s individual preoccupations and can be either very narrowly focused or  really all over the map in subject matter.  Yet they can help to reflect the community conversation of the moment.  Arbor Update is a now venerable group blog that includes some reporting, some aggregating, and a great deal of commentary that can be at times highly informative, thought-provoking, or trivial and annoying (when certain commenters get into rants).  Edward Vielmetti’s blog is another long-standing Ann Arbor blog which comments on his eclectic interests (recently many videos have been added), and he brings his focus on detail and technology to it as well as in his role as a commenter on many other area blogs. On the newer side, the Ann Arbor Tree Conservancy (which originated with a neighborhood group)  is only now organizing its blog, but it already has a news update function (for its chosen subject area) and links to local news sources. I’m not even going to try to make a comprehensive list of local blogs.  Web lurkers will probably pick up on blogs for their specialized areas of interest: for example, I find that for sustainability and local food, two good sources of local news are the Brines Farm blog and the Farmer’s Marketer.

I’d like to hear of new (or old) Ann Arbor blogs that can be a source of news about our community.  So would the Knight Foundation.  They’d like you to submit your site for inclusion in their directory.  Note, their focus is on citizen journalism, not on opinion or action.   If you have a blog or website that features local news, the directory will help scholars – and local readers – find you.

UPDATE: The Poynter Institute is sponsoring a two-day workshop on October 21 and 22  for bloggers and citizen journalists.  The first day is free.  The information is here.

The Westside Marauders and Crime in Ann Arbor

This post has been edited and augmented; the original version was published September 9, 2009 and this edited version is published September 11, 2009.

It had to happen – our nice little safe neighborhood finally became the target for crime.  I live in the Sunset-Brooks area and for years have examined the Ann Arbor Observer monthly crime map with more than a little touch of smugness, since our section of the map was always so nice and clean.

But a couple of weeks ago the phone calls started to let us know that people were experiencing break-ins.  Someone is invading houses during the day, usually when they think no one is home.  According to the police memo, this has been going on since May.  Bad enough.  Lock your doors.  But apparently the efforts are becoming more strenuous.  I heard today that last weekend the thieves used an axe to break down a door.  This conjures up some pretty scary pictures.

As I have announced at the top of this post, we are meeting with the police on September 10 to learn what we can.  But this brings up a broader question, one that I have seen discussed in email listserve groups for some months: how are the city budget cuts and reduction in force of our police affecting our safety?

Informal figures overheard at council meetings indicate that between 25-27 officers accepted early retirement packages from the city as part of the budget cuts.  That is a reduction in force of approximately 20% (the force was about 138 officers).  Will this mean we are more vulnerable to crime?  Our mayor says we shouldn’t worry.

Here is his response to a constituent (widely published on a listserv; typos are as delivered):

I discussed your neighborhood this morning with the Police Chief and City Administrator. We went over the most recent crime numbers up to last Saturday and at this time there is no noticable up-tick in the statistacal data. However, our goal will be to insure that it does not get that far.  Perhaps it seems unusual in the way that many of us think about Police Chiefs but our Chief still goes out on patrol himself and often rides along with patrol officers. He was recently in your neighborhood with one of the patrol officers who grew up there.

The Chief will be scheduling a meeting for early September so the PD can communicate directly with you and your neighbors.

In the meantime it would be helpful if you could be as specific as possible in communications with the PD. Calling 911 when you see something suspicous would really help. Someone trying to gain entry to a house they do not own is something that should be reported immediatly.  Observing someone using drugs on the street, in a park, etc., would also qualify as a reason to call with specific information.

The number of officers on Patrol in our City is the same as it has been for several years and they will be paying special attention to your area. As I explained to someone else who wrote earlier today, crime statistics continue on a long term downward trend in our city but that does not mean certain areas don’t need special attention from time to time. The AAPD will do their best to keep your neighborhood safe.

John Hieftje

Somehow the reassurances about “no uptick in statistical data” are not very satisfying.  Do we have enough police officers to investigate and mitigate a crime wave in our little neighborhood?  I’m looking forward to hearing what the officer has to tell us tomorrow.  But I wish we would stop reducing our force at a time when the economy is down.  I’d like to go back to our nice little crime-free zone as soon as possible.

UPDATE: A neighborhood meeting was held on September 10 at the Free Methodist Church on Newport.  The sanctuary was overflowing (we counted over 100 people attending).  Sergeant  Matthew Lige spoke in general terms about how investigations are conducted.  He advised homeowners who detect entry to call 911 immediately (or perhaps Detective Michael Lencioni, who has been assigned to the case) and avoid handling items in the house (including a door or window that might have been used to gain entry, or places where there might be footprints).  He stressed the importance of keeping evidence intact (but joked that they rarely get “CSI moments” where a single piece of evidence solves the case).  In describing cases of burglary in our neighborhood* since May, a very common pattern emerged and a single suspect seems to be involved in at least many of them. (*roughly the area circumscribed by  Spring, Miller, Newport and Sunset)  Several members of the audience related their own experience with this man.  He is a young (18-25) African-American, thin, light-skinned, with a little bit of chin hair and sometimes wearing a gold cross.  He typically rings doorbells, and if the door is answered, engages in conversation in which he asks for help in  looking for a relative, sometimes named “Veronica”.  (A couple of people have described trying very hard to help, even getting out the phone book.)  One woman said that he was nicely dressed and spoke well, “very Ann Arbor”.  He carries a bag or backpack, and although this was not said explicitly, seems to be on foot.  Evidently if no one is home, he goes to the back of the house and enters either by cutting screens, breaking windows, climbing to the second story window, or in one case, using the homeowner’s own hatchet to break down a door.  Jewelry, electronics, and other easy portable items are taken.  At least 19 of these break-ins have been reported.  (Annarbor.com’s story says 20.)

The sergeant asked people to watch the neighborhood and to call if  “anyone suspicious” was seen.  But he cautioned that the police can not take a person into custody just for looking suspicious.  When asked about increased police patrols for the area, the sergeant shuffled his feet and said that “we are working as diligently as we can though we don’t have the numbers we had”.

About those numbers: in the last budget, police officers were offered an early retirement option.  The city budgeted $6.7 million to pay for it.  It was anticipated that about 12 sworn officers would take the offer.  As a result of a flood of early retirements, at least double that number have left.  (No official count has been released, to my knowledge.)  I’ll note that my experience with the county sworn officers is that they are often young enough when they retire to take another similar job with another law enforcement agency.

SECOND UPDATE: Thanks to the FBI data picked up by A2Politico and then by AnnArbor.com, a full article on crime in Ann Arbor now reveals that we have had increased crime citywide as well as in our northwest neighborhood.  A meeting with the police chief and the mayor is scheduled at Miller Manor The Community Center at 625 N. Main St. on Saturday, September 19, 9 a.m.

Recounting the Impact on Ann Arbor Politics

Leigh Greden at the recount. (Photo, Ann Arbor Chronicle)

Well, it’s over.  As reported by the Ann Arbor Chronicle, Leigh Greden was defeated in his bid for re-election to his Ann Arbor City Council seat, and the six-vote margin held through a recount.  And thus, the end of an era.  Greden was in many ways the most instrumental force on the Council, especially after the departure of Chris Easthope (elected to the 15th District court in 2008).  As the Chronicle story details, he was (and remains, until November) on the major committees that determine how the city runs. And as we speculated earlier, his defeat may have implications for the political landscape of the city beyond issues specific to his personality and the immediate aspects of the Third Ward primary race. Are we about to see another historic shift in Ann Arbor local politics?  It might be useful to review recent history and examine the trends that have brought us to where we are.

The shift to a one-party system

The last time a Republican won a city office in Ann Arbor was 2003, when Marcia Higgins was re-elected to the Fourth Ward council seat and Mike Reid bested Amy Seetoo in the Second Ward by 54%. The last time the Republican Party put up a candidate for Mayor was in 2004, when Jane Lumm garnered only 31% of the citywide vote against a triumphant John Hieftje. There were no Republican council candidates on the ballot.  Marcia Higgins announced that she was joining the Democratic Party and won re-election as a Democrat in 2005, joined by the former Republican mayoral candidate, Stephen Rapundalo, who won as a Democrat in the Second Ward.

Two decades ago Ann Arbor’s council moved back and forth from a Democratic to a Republican majority.  Even with an emerging Democratic majority, Wards 2 & 4 usually elected Republicans, and a Republican mayor, Ingrid Sheldon, was repeatedly re-elected.  Sheldon chose not to run for re-election in 2000, when John Hieftje (who was in his first term as a councilmember from the First Ward) bested Stephen Rapundalo, running as a Republican.  During these years of a competitive political environment, there was a strong local Democratic party composed of activists who recruited and supported candidates.  Running against another Democrat in a primary was mostly discouraged, and often when two people were interested in an open seat, party elders would take them into a room and talk one of them out of running.

An important reason for the emergence of a one-party council is the general shift in Ann Arbor to a Democratic preference, especially at the national level.  As the national Republican Party has leaned farther and farther right, turnout and loyalty for Democratic voters has become so strong that even county-wide Republican candidates can no longer be elected.  This is most important in general elections in even years, when statewide and national candidates are on the ballot and many voters simply vote straight Democratic.

The effect of this party shift has been to drive moderate Republicans either to adopt the Democratic label (as did Rapundalo and Higgins) or to give up running for local office.  It has also pushed any chance of a competitive election into the Democratic primary.

For a little while, incumbents who had initially been elected without opposition, or initially appointed by Mayor Hieftje to fill vacated seats,  enjoyed the protection of incumbency against electoral challenges.  But when Kim Groome vacated her seat (as we described earlier, she was a dissident from the already solidifying council majority, or “Council Party”), a reliable candidate, John Roberts was appointed to fill it; and then Ron Suarez defeated him in a Democratic primary in August 2006.  A year later, Mike Anglin defeated Wendy Woods (who had been unopposed since her appointment to replace Chris Kolb in the Fifth Ward seat) in another primary. With the election (to an open seat) of Sabra Briere and the unexpected independence of Stephen Kunselman, the power of the CP was threatened.  (It requires 8 votes to pass certain measures on council.)

The emergence of dissidents who mount primary challenges to Democratic incumbents has prompted some discussion from party functionaries about  endorsing and/or funding candidates during primaries.  But it has already brought about some strong defensive action from what I have named the Council Party.

The importance of endorsements from the political establishment

In recent campaigns (such as the competitive primary races in 2008), the political establishment has rolled out the heavy guns in favor of candidates who will support the CP’s agenda.  The winning candidates in 2008 (all of whom celebrated their victories together at Vie Fit, Carsten Hohnke’s wife’s place of business) (see correction below) were all endorsed by Mayor Hieftje and County Commissioner and kingmaker Leah Gunn.  (The exception to Hieftje’s endorsement was Christopher Taylor, running a challenge against Stephen Kunselman in the Third Ward. Kunselman, first elected in 2006, had proven to be too independent for the CP, but Hieftje evidently saw it as bad form to endorse an incumbent’s challenger.)  Some garnered even more impressive endorsements; Congressman John Dingell endorsed Tony Derezinski in the Second Ward,  and Carsten Hohnke (to whom I lost the Fifth Ward race) was endorsed by State Representative Rebekah Warren and her husband, Conan Smith (a Washtenaw County Commissioner).  As Smith (who succeeded me on the BOC) explained in an email, “…we are more concerned by the divisions that are emerging between two factions than by the actual decisions that the council ultimately comes to…we feel that restoring balance to the process is the most pressing issue.  It’s our opinion that Carsten has the better chance to bridge that gap, due in part to his strong relationships with the ‘veteran majority’…”.

But though, as seen at Greden’s campaign website, he was favored with extremely strong endorsements that included Congressman Dingell, State Senator Liz Brater, Water Resources Commissioner Janis Bobrin, and four councilmembers (Rapundalo, Higgins, Teall and Taylor), in addition to Hieftje and Gunn, he still captured only 36.1% of the vote.  (Warren and Smith did not endorse him, as might be expected, since Rep. Warren fought and won a hard primary against him in 2006.)

Now to November

The November general election will be the next test of popular dissatisfaction with the CP. Only one council seat is contested: that of long-time councilmember Marcia Higgins, who with the Mayor is now the longest-serving CM. (She was first elected, as a Republican, in 1999.)  Higgins was not opposed in the Democratic primary, but now faces a challenge from Hatim Elhady, who is running as an independent.

Hatim Elhady, contemplating the future (Photo Marla A. Alvarez)

Elhady is what one might describe as a “fresh face”. His parents emigrated from Yemen in the 1970s and he was born in Grosse Pointe, but grew up in Detroit. He graduated from the University of Michigan in 2009 with a dual major in economics and Near Eastern history and is now applying to an MBA program.   There are no campaign statements or a website yet (his campaign kickoff will be sometime around September 15). However, some sense of his thinking can be found in a discussion chain on the Ann Arbor Chronicle, in which he shows a nimble ability to learn.  He clearly has a lot to learn, but the comments reveal that he has already been attending meetings and buttonholing officials.  (See the Chronicle’s account of his comments at a council meeting.)

Under most circumstances, Elhady’s chances of unseating Higgins would be considered to be very low; “student candidates” have not historically done well in council contests.  (One of the last, Eugene Kang, was defeated by Stephen Rapundalo in his first run for council, but Kang has made do since then with the Obama administration.)  But Elhady refuses to be stereotyped; “My campaign is not built around students, it is built atop serious issues for ALL Ann Arbor residents and for all those who take these issues personally just as I have”. He also makes a strong personal impression.  I was interested to meet him after hearing from several different neighborhood advocates such comments as “Really sharp” “Very impressive”.  After a brief unplanned conversation at a council meeting, I made a small (unplanned) donation to his campaign.   On reflection, I think that it was not any particular statement that he made, but the overall air of confidence, energy, intelligence, and presence.  It reminded me of another 22-year-old who impressed me in a similar way.  Jeff Irwin went on to win a four-way primary and is just celebrating 10 years on the Board of Commissioners (two as the Chair of the BOC).

One of the factors that could affect Elhady’s chances is the WISD ballot proposal also on the November ballot.  This is likely to bring out many voters who have little information about the council race, and they are likely to vote for the incumbent.  It will be a real test of his campaign, and of the political mood.

UPDATE: With all the other history, I neglected to put adequate information about the 2008 contest into the post.  I have now added a link to the Ann Arbor News story.  Here is what Mayor Hieftje is quoted as saying at the victory party:

“This is a victory for the city… We have elected five council members with a big-picture vision of the future of Ann Arbor. … They have the ability to work together to see it through.”

SECOND UPDATE: CM Sandi Smith commented that she had her own victory party.   I apologize for the error.  Friends had told me that the entire group was present at Vie Fit and the News story gives that impression, listing her name with the others in a separate sentence.

THIRD UPDATE: Mr. Elhady now has a campaign website up.  No website for Marcia Higgins seems to be available at present.  There has been a fair amount of chat about this campaign on Arbor Update, in which it was revealed that Ms. Higgins is struggling with some illness in her family, which caused her to decline the scheduled League of Women Voters debate.  (The debate presumably was not rescheduled because there is another race in the First Ward, which will have a debate.)

FOURTH UPDATE: Marcia Higgins’ website has been announced. It is here.